CAPITAL ESTATE GROUP

Happy October

Pumpkins are on porches, skeletons are appearing in front yards, and if you’ve been following you Capital Estate Group on social media, you may have noticed that we’ve been sharing some truly spooktacular haunted houses that have been for sale.

Some have turrets. Some have creepy basements. Some look like the kind of place where the listing remarks should probably disclose, “Previous occupant may still be present and conveys with the home.”

Check out our social pages this month for a little Halloween real estate fun.

The actual housing market, however, is giving us a few chills of its own.

The Numbers That Matter

• Closed home sales fell 8.4% compared to September 2025
• New pending home sales dropped 17.1%
• Showing activity declined 16.9%
• Active home inventory surged 20.1%
• Median days on market increased to 22 days
• Yet median prices still rose 1.6% year-over-year

So yes, buyers have pulled back. But prices haven’t disappeared into the night.

More Homes. Fewer Buyers.

September produced the lowest September sales total in nearly 20 years, while inventory climbed above pre-pandemic levels.

That combination matters.

Higher mortgage rates are keeping more buyers on the sidelines, and because many sellers also need to become buyers somewhere else, some homeowners are hesitating too. Still, sellers brought almost as many new listings to market as they did last September, while far fewer buyers wrote contracts.

Here’s our translation — Buyers finally have choices. Sellers can't just put a sign in the yard, light a pumpkin, and wait for the offers to magically appear.

Preparation, pricing, and presentation matter, as always.

Not Every Property Is Equally Spooky

Detached homes are holding up relatively well. Median detached-home prices were 2.6% higher than last year, and the typical detached home sold in 18 days. Townhomes have softened somewhat, with median prices down 1.9%.

And condos?

That’s where things start to feel like a horror movie.

Active condo inventory jumped more than 30% from last year, while pending sales fell nearly 19%. Condos that sold took a median 35 days, and there are now nearly five months of condo supply across the region.

For condo buyers, that creates negotiating opportunities. For condo sellers, hoping buyers won’t notice the competing unit three floors down — with a better kitchen and a lower price — is probably not a winning strategy.

What It Means for You

If you’re buying a home, there may be more opportunity this fall than the headlines suggest. More inventory and fewer competing buyers can mean more negotiating room, especially in condos and some townhome markets.

If you’re selling a home, buyers are still out there — but they’re choosier. Homes that are well-prepared, correctly priced, and thoughtfully marketed will stand out. Homes that aren’t may linger around like that one Halloween decoration your neighbor forgets to take down until December.

And part of our job is helping you understand which market you’re actually in.

Because there isn’t one Washington housing market. There are dozens — by neighborhood, price point, property type, condition, and even individual condo building.

So enjoy the costumes, the candy, and our spooktacular haunted-house tour on social media this month.

But when it comes to your own real estate decisions, there’s no reason to be scared.

As always, we’re here to listen, advise, and advocate.

September 2026

September usually brings a reset. Vacations end, schools reopen, calendars fill up, and the housing market gets one last push before the holidays.

This year, though, the fall market is arriving with a different rhythm. After a relatively resilient Spring, August brought a clear slowdown across the Washington, DC region. Buyers pulled back, fewer contracts were written, showings declined, and sellers became more cautious too.

And yet — prices are still near record territory.

The Numbers That Matter

• Closed sales fell 9.2% compared to August 2025
• New pending sales dropped 11.5%
• Showing activity declined 7.3%
• New listings fell 3.8% and active listings climbed 11.3%
• Median prices were still 2.4% higher than last year
• Homes took a median of 19 days to sell

​

Quite simply, the DMV’s closed and pending sales are at five-year lows, while prices and active inventory are at five-year highs.

That’s quite a cocktail.

More Choices — Fewer Shoppers

The region now has more homes available than at any point in the past five years, but that hasn’t translated into more buyer activity.

High mortgage rates, affordability concerns, and economic uncertainty are keeping more discretionary buyers on the sidelines. And because many sellers also need to become buyers somewhere else, some homeowners are waiting too.

The buyers still touring tend to be serious ones. So while the open house may feel a little less like Costco on a Saturday afternoon, the person walking through may actually be much closer to writing an offer.

Not All Markets Are Behaving Alike

The regional numbers hide some dramatic differences.

Arlington County continues to stand out, with median prices up 14.8% year-over-year and homes selling 10 days faster than last August.

Washington, D.C. remains its own story. Closed sales fell 19.5%, pending sales dropped 14.6%, and the District now has nearly five months of supply — much more balanced than most surrounding jurisdictions.

​The major reason? Condos.

The Condo Market Has Broken Away from the Pack

The divergence between condos and detached homes is now hard to ignore.

In August, condo closed sales fell 22.7%, pending sales dropped 19.7%, and median condo prices declined 5.7%. The typical condo took 34 days to sell, while active condo inventory surged 28.2%. That’s a very different market from what many detached-home sellers are experiencing.

And there’s an important nuance. Some condo owners simply choose not to sell. They rent the unit or stay put rather than accept a lower price, which means the condos that do sell only tell part of the story.

What It Means

If you’re selling a home, this is not the market to “try a price.” There are fewer buyers, more competing listings, and much less patience for homes that are not prepared or positioned correctly.

If you’re buying a home, there is finally more choice — but not every property is a bargain. Detached homes in strong locations can still draw competition, while condos may offer much more negotiating leverage.

There isn’t one Washington housing market anymore. There are dozens — divided by neighborhood, price point, property type, and condition.

If you’re thinking about buying, selling, investing, or simply wondering what this changing market means for your home, we’d love to talk through the numbers that matter most to you.

As always, we’re here to listen, advise, and advocate.

August 2026

As summer winds down and backpacks replace beach bags, the DMV housing market is entering its next season as well. The biggest story isn't that buyers have disappeared. It's that the casual homebuyers have.

Those who are still in the market are serious, financially prepared, and ready to move when the right home comes along. Meanwhile, higher mortgage rates and continued economic uncertainty have caused many tire-kicking homebuyers to press pause.

That shift is changing the rhythm of the market.

July Numbers That Matter

• New listings increased 3.3% compared to July 2025
• Active home inventory is up 11.2% year-over-year
• Home inventory is now at its highest level in five years
• Showing activity declined 4.7%
• New pending sales fell 4.2% compared to last July
• The median home price is up 1.6% year-over-year
• Arlington home prices surged 15.9%. Most other areas showed relatively flat prices. 

More Homes. Fewer Tire-Kickers.

One statistic jumped off the page this month. Home inventory continues to grow, yet showing activity actually declined.

In other words, there are more homes to see — but fewer people simply browsing.

It's a little like the first week after Labor Day at the neighborhood pool. The crowds are gone, but the people who are still there really want to swim.

Today's homebuyers are more intentional. They're touring fewer homes, doing more research before scheduling a showing, and making decisions with greater discipline than we've seen over the past several years.

Inventory Is Growing… But It's Still a Seller's Market

With more than 11,400 active listings, buyers have more choices than they've had since 2019. That sounds like a buyer's market.

It isn't.

Across nearly every jurisdiction we serve, sellers still hold the advantage because well-priced homes continue to attract strong demand. The exception is the District itself, where the growing number of condominiums has pushed the market into more balanced territory.

The lesson? Real estate has always been hyper-local. Today, it's even more so.

The Condo Story May Be Changing

For months we've watched condo inventory climb. This month, something interesting happened.

Rather than continuing to accelerate, inventory appears to be leveling of One possible explanation is that more owners are choosing to rent rather than sell, particularly as they weigh today's pricing against their long-term investment goals. We'll be watching this trend carefully over the coming months.

If it continues, it could help stabilize the condo market after an extended period of rising inventory.

Where the Market Is Still Running Hot

While the overall market has become more selective, not every community is moving at the same pace. Arlington continues to post remarkable strength, with home prices climbing nearly 16% over last year. Loudoun County also posted impressive appreciation, with prices rising 7.4%.

These are reminders that even in a market that's becoming more measured, certain neighborhoods continue to command exceptional demand.

What It Means for You

If your selling a home, this market rewards preparation. There may be fewer homebuyers walking through the front door — but the ones who do are far more likely to write an offer. Pricing correctly, preparing your home thoughtfully, and marketing strategically remain as important as ever.

If you’re buying a home, having more inventory means more opportunity — but it doesn't mean every home is a bargain. The best homes still command attention, while homes with pricing or condition challenges are sitting longer than they did a year ago.

And as always, part of our job isn't simply helping clients buy or sell a home. It's helping them understand which market they're actually in.

Because while the headlines talk about the housing market, the reality is there are dozens of markets operating simultaneously — by neighborhood, by price point, and even by property type. Understanding that difference is often the key to making the right move.

Whether you're planning a move this fall or simply curious about what's happening in your neighborhood, we're always here to help you separate the headlines from the opportunities.

As always, we're here to listen, advise, and advocate.